Market Prediction

Yesterday, JCI closed higher by 0.28% to 7,157.8 level. Foreigners recorded net buy of 543.83bn (all market) and net buy of 242.35bn (RG market). The top 5 foreign net buy stocks were BBCA (118.3B), BBRI (51.7B), AMMN (42.8B), BRIS (38.9B), & TPIA (37.7B). Meanwhile, the top 5 foreign net sellers are ASII (41.7B), KLBF (27.3B), AKRA (23.8B), INCO (23.1), MYOR (13.9B).

Major Wall Street indices closed higher (DJI +0.59%, GSPC +0.76%, IXIC +1.12%). EIDO closed +1.05%higher. The strength was fuelled in the afternoon session by the Treasury Department's quarterly borrowing forecast cut by $55bn to $760bn in Q1. In addition, traders are also anticipating a busy earnings week, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decision on Wednesday, and important labour data, including non-farm payrolls, unemployment, and JOLTS. 

Today's index is expected to move sideways with limited chances of strengthening.

The JCI closed higher and pulled back to the 7,162 area. The stochastic indicator was bearish, MACD histogram moved negative (bearish line) and volume increased. Bearish scenario: If it moves bearish again, the JCI is expected to weaken again to the support range of 7,099 - 7,115. Bullish scenario: If JCI is able to move bullish, there is an opportunity for JCI to head to the resistance of 7,194 - 7,20.

Commodities:

• Oil prices fluctuated, with WTI crude futures falling below $76.7 per barrel after a 1.5% increase to three-month highs above $79 as traders are evaluating the escalating conflict in the Middle East. A drone attack blamed by the White House on Iran-backed militants killed US troops in Jordan, with President Biden saying the US shall respond.

• Newcastle coal futures fell to below $120 per tonne, the lowest since May 2021 due to oversupply in the Chinese coal market, driven by increased domestic production and a significant surge in coal imports. China's coal output rose 2.9% from a year earlier to 4.66 billion metric tons in 2023, a record high.

• Palm Oil increased 201 MYR/MT or 5.40% since the beginning of 2024, according to trading on a contract for difference (CFD) that tracks the benchmark market for this commodity. Historically, Palm Oil reached an all time high of 7268 in March of 2022.

Macro Economic News

• The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas’s general business activity index for manufacturing in Texas slipped 17 points to -27.4 in January 2024, the lowest in eight months, suggesting a deeper contraction during the month. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, dropped 17 points to -15.4, marking its lowest reading since mid-2020.

• The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) maintained its monetary policy setting in its first quarterly monetary policy decision of the new year, extending the pause from its 2023 meetings amid elevated cost pressure. The authority said it will closely monitor global and domestic economic developments, and remain vigilant to risks to inflation and growth.

• The Domestic Supply Price Index in Singapore fell 1.1% year-on-year in December 2023, marking a year of deflation, although easing from November’s 2.9% drop.

Corporate news

• PT Perintis Triniti Properti Tbk. (TRIN) recorded marketing revenue of Rp1,05 trillion. The Company's marketing revenue reach exceeds the target of marketing revenue in 2023, which is Rp1 trillion.

• PT Waskita Karya Tbk. (WSKT) through its subsidiary, PT Waskita Toll Road (WTR), released 25% of its shares in PT Trans Jabar Tol (TJT) to PT Sarana Multi Infrastruktur (SMI), a company that focuses on infrastructure financing under the control of the Ministry of Finance (Kemenkeu).

• PT Pertamina Geothermal Energy Tbk. (PGEO) has been included in the LQ45 index during the major rebalancing for the period of February - July 2024. This reflects PGEO's stable growth and positive reception from the market as it is seen as a significant player in the capital market. • The shares of PT Sumber Mineral Global Abadi Tbk. (SMGA) were oversubscribed 156.77 times during their initial public offering, indicating strong investor interest. SMGA's success in nickel and coal trading has contributed to investor confidence.

• The Indonesia Stock Exchange has revised the LQ45 index by adding four new stocks and removing four others. The inclusion of PT Mitra Pack, despite its low market capitalisation and transaction value, may come as a surprise. However, investors should still consider the other three newcomers, as they operate in attractive sectors with positive business prospects. The LQ45 index serves as a benchmark for many local fund managers.

• PT Cashlez Worldwide Indonesia Tbk. (CASH) and PT Bank Amar Indonesia Tbk. (Amar) have formed a strategic partnership to offer credit facilities to Cashlez merchants, mostly MSMEs, to support their growth and provide digital banking services. This collaboration aims to increase the number of transactions and provide working capital through two services: Get Paid Now and Merchant Cash Advance.

• Islamic banks in Indonesia, like PT Bank Syariah Indonesia Tbk. (BRIS) and PT Bank Muamalat Indonesia Tbk are focusing on developing the Islamic home financing market to cater to the large potential. BSI is positive about the prospects, particularly with the government's plan to increase home ownership loan tenors to 35 years. This is expected to benefit young people in their quest for home ownership.

• Industrial estate issuers, PT Surya Semesta Internusa Tbk. (SSIA) and PT AKR Corporindo Tbk. (AKRA), have set high targets for increasing industrial land sales in 2024. The government has also set a target of IDR 1,650 trillion for investment realisation in 2024. SSIA aims to sell 65 hectares of industrial land, a 217% increase from 2023